ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITS ON SUPERSONIC AIRCRAFT IN 2035

This study investigates the market potential and atmospheric impacts of two potential supersonic transport (SST) aircraft: a small jet ("Small SST") seating 15 passengers and designed for 140% the speed of sound (MN 1.4), and a larger airliner ("Large SST") seating 75 and operating at MN 1.7. We model the potential market and climate impacts of both aircraft without environmental constraints, and then under noise and climate constraints. The number of supersonic aircraft, potential operations, and overall fuel burn under four scenarios in 2035 are projected using a modeling suite from the MIT Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment; the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model is used to derive the radiative forcing (RF) impact of ozone, water vapor, methane, and black carbon and sulfate aerosols from those operations.

We find that environmental limits will sharply constrain the potential supersonic market.

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Environmental limits on supersonic aircraft in 2035 - International Council on Clean Transportation (theicct.org)