Toulouse, July 2, 2018 –
ATR has today published its new Market Forecast (2018-2037), where it
estimates a market for 3,020 turboprop aircraft in the next 20 years.
The expected demand for turboprops over the next two decades confirms
their healthy position in the up-to-90-seat regional market. Since 2010,
turboprops have represented 50% of the total sales in this segment
where ATR is the preferred choice of regional airlines.
The key driver for this positive outlook is traffic growth in regional
connectivity. This comes from both traditional markets where less
connected locations are being connected with direct regional new routes,
as well as from emerging markets where the most viable solution for
connecting people and transporting goods is turboprop air links.
In the 2018-2037 market forecast, nearly 80% (2,390 aircraft) of the
total demand is expected to come from the 61-80 seat category, a market
segment served for years by the ATR 72. The remaining 20% (630 aircraft)
will come from the 40-60 seat market, a segment where the ATR 42, the
only 50-seat aircraft available new on the market, provides strong
potential for the up gauge of 30-seat, and the replacement of 50-seat,
regional aircraft.
Over the next 20 years, the largest demand for turboprops is expected to
come from Asia (43%), followed by Europe, Africa and Middle East (31%)
and the Americas (26%).
Beyond passenger aircraft, ATR estimates that the increase of freight
traffic will generate, over the next two decades, a potential for the
delivery of 460 turboprop freighters. This includes converted aircraft
as well as the recently launched ATR 72-600F, the only regional cargo
aircraft available straight from factory.
There are several drivers that can explain the expected high demand for turboprops
Route creation & traffic growth
Regional aviation has experienced an outstanding development, with 58%
of the current regional networks worldwide having been created over the
last 15 years. The growth of the regional routes has been particularly
intense in the period 2012 – 2017, with ATR playing a major role, with
an annual average of over 100 new routes created, and a record of 155
new routes in 2017. Today, turboprops operate half of the flights below
330 nm all over the world, the most fuel-efficient solution for
short-hauls. ATRs are particularly reputed for their eco-efficiency,
featuring a fuel consumption of up to 45% less than regional jets and
30% less than competing turboprop.
Based on their current and recent success in opening new routes with the
lowest risk, ATR estimates that turboprop aircraft have the potential
to generate 2,770 new routes in the 20 years to come. During this
period, regional traffic is expected to grow annually at a pace of 4.5%,
with around 30% of the traffic in 2037 coming from routes that do not
currently exist.
Connectivity & Social Responsibility
Air connectivity plays an essential role in boosting local economies. An
increase in flights of 10% generates additional increases of 5% in
tourism, 6% in regional GDP and 8% foreign direct investment. ATR, as
the global benchmark among regional aircraft, will therefore play a
major role in supporting social development. Turboprops are key in
connecting communities around the world: 36% of all commercial airports
rely exclusively on turboprops and 50% rely, also exclusively, on
regional aircraft.
ATR is already renowned for its eco-efficiency. When compared to an
equivalent-sized regional jet, a latest generation ATR emits up to 40%
less
CO2.
Turboprops will continue to play an essential role in minimising the
impact on the environment. If all operating regional jets were to be
replaced by turboprops in routes up to 500 nm, regional aviation would
reduce overall CO2 emissions by 11%. In addition, often serving urban
airports, the significantly lower noise footprint of ATRs, further
contributes towards their social responsibility.
Innovation in turboprop technology with new versions & Digital Services
The ability to continuously innovate to match market requirements will
also be essential to the demand for new turboprops over time. ATR has a
good track record in this domain. Besides the recent launch of the new
ATR 72-600F freighter version, ATR evaluates a version of the ATR 42-600
with enhanced performance at take-off and landing, thus potentially
expanding accessibility and opening new routes and markets. The
turboprop manufacturer will also expand operational versatility with the
new ClearVision system, a first in commercial aviation, currently under
certification, that enhances pilot visibility and awareness. The
expansion of customer support and services, along with their progressive
digitalisation, will also continue to play a key role in the success of
turboprops in the years to come. Today, with an in-service fleet of
over 1,100 aircraft, ATR’s services revenue represents some 20% of the
total turnover, and is expected to grow by 10% annually.
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