OPINION: Forecasters must be wary of the broken 'cycle' model [feedly]

OPINION: Forecasters must be wary of the broken 'cycle' model
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/opinion-forecasters-must-be-wary-of-the-broken-cyc-423070/

n Airline Business last year, we suggested that central bankers and finance ministers were somewhat optimistic in their view that, having missed the forecast for 2015, the world's economies would be back on track by 2016.

However, immediately before February's G20 meeting in Shanghai, the IMF made a number of pertinent albeit belated observations about future economic prospects. These included a "rising stress in emerging nations" and, following gyrations in financial markets, "higher risks of a derailed recovery at a moment when the global economy is highly vulnerable to adverse shocks".