New Aircraft Designs: Wait Until 2030

http://www.aviationcv.com/aviation-blog/2015/new-aircraft-designs-wait-2030/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2015-02-22&utm_campaign=Aviation+Weekly+News+Plane+crash+caught+on+tape

The trend toward incremental change means that passengers hoping for a significantly better flying experience and aviation buffs excited by the latest technology should probably rein in their hopes.

“You do not need to do a new program to develop these new technologies,” Ray Conner, chief executive of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said in an interview for www.cnet.com. “You’re able to take the things you create and bring them to other aircraft, to develop a really good airplane that meets the market needs.”

Shareholders point of view: incremental improvements are a lower-risk course of action than developing all-new designs. Even with less reliance on dramatic new designs, Airbus and Boeing have huge numbers of orders to fulfill as Asian airlines boom and all airlines struggle with high fuel prices.

“There’s a seven-year backlog without even taking new orders,” said Ben Moores , a senior analyst with IHS Jane’s for www.cnet.com. “You’re going to see a doubling of wide-body production over the next several years.”

That’s why the industry is focusing on faster production and updates to existing designs rather than new jets that are costly to design, test, and bring to market.